The Covid-19 surge is almost under control in most of India, with the pace of vaccination increasing and the number of Coronavirus infections declining. However, the possibility of a third wave can’t be ruled out, as some states/UTs like Kerala and Maharashtra have been showing an increasing trend in Covid-19 cases.
While cases are now much lower in India, the third wave is expected to arrive around October 2021. A third wave of Covid-19 in India will be less severe than the second and could peak anytime between October and November, recent projections have shown. If a new strain does emerge, then India could witness up to1 lakh Covid cases a day during the peak. The current study extracts available data from the first two waves in various countries to prepare for the future surge in cases in India. The aim was to promote preparedness and thus avert the worst outcomes. The researchers of the current study examined data from 15 countries around the world, of which eight have already experienced the third wave. A wide range of population sizes, climates, and healthcare infrastructures was included to allow for the effects of these factors on infection rates. Data were collected until April 25, 2021, using specified parameters to determine the day when the first wave began and ended in any given country, as well as the start and end dates of their second waves.
Last month, the model suggested that the third wave could peak between October and November and the daily cases could shoot between 1.5 lakh to 2 lakh every day if a more virulent mutant of SARS-CoV2 drive fresh infections. However, no such mutant strain emerged. India reported more than 2.9 lakh new Coronavirus infections in the week ended August 29, a 32 rise in the number of Covid-19 cases over the previous week. The week also recorded the highest weekly cases since the seven-day period of June28-July 8 (3.05 lakh Covid-19 cases). The number of new coronavirus infections in India has been hovering around 30,000. However, it has shown an upward trend for the past few days, with the country reporting more than 40,000 cases. With 380 fresh fatalities, the Covid-19 death toll has climbed to 4,38,210, the ministry said. The number of Covid-19 active cases in the country has increased to 3,76,324 and now accounts for 1.15 per cent of the total infections.
